Whether the housing zone a commune is classed in, which opens or closes the Pinel tax reduction and the zero-rate loan for new homes, changes how many flats it authorises.
The Pinel and Duflot tax reductions for buy-to-let investors cost in 2024; Pinel applied by right only in zones A bis, A and B1. In 2018 it was closed to the communes of zone B2, whose zero-rate loan for new homes was cut the same year. Against communes of zone B1, which kept both, estimates of the flats B2 communes authorised run from to per 1,000 inhabitants a year depending on the estimator, and the estimators find gaps of the same size where no rule changed: the design cannot tell a large fall from none. The regional prefects' approvals that opened Pinel in B2 are not published by commune, so B2 mixes communes that lost it with communes that never had it, and any bound holds for B2 as a whole. Prices in B2 moved by against B1, though zone A, where no rule changed, shows a smaller fall against B1 too. The communes moved up the zoning in 2023-2025 authorised flats per 1,000 inhabitants a year against communes not moved: no more flats in the year or two after their move, on provisional counts.
Estimated: a model, an imputation or a surveyUnmarked figures are published as observed.
Evidence
The Pinel tax reduction lets buy-to-let investors in new dwellings deduct part of the price from their income tax. Counted with the Duflot reduction it succeeded, as one tax expenditure, it cost in 2024, the last year it could be taken out. It applies by right only in zones A bis, A and B1 of the State's A/B/C housing zoning, and the zone also sets the zero-rate loan for new homes (PTZ). In 2018 the State closed Pinel to zone B2, where it had applied only in communes the regional prefect approved, and cut the new-build PTZ there the same year; in 2023-2025 it moved communes up the zoning, opening Pinel to them until its end and the PTZ for new flats from April 2024. The question is whether the zone changes how many dwellings a commune authorises, and what it does to prices.
The 2018 closure. Communes in zone B2 at every revision from 2014 to 2022 against those in B1 throughout, within population bands, from five years before to five years after. The outcome is the dwellings authorised in collective buildings per 1,000 inhabitants: Pinel financed mostly flats, the PTZ mostly houses.
Its placebos. The same comparison at a fake date, 2015, and zone A against B1 in 2018, where no rule changed between the groups. An estimator that finds a fall there measures something other than Pinel.
The reclassifications. Communes moved from B2 or C up to B1, A or A bis in 2023, 2024 or 2025, against communes not yet moved and communes whose zone did not change, within their former zone and population band.
Estimators. The event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, measured from the year before the change, and synthetic difference-in-differences. Permits are Sitadel's, by commune and year; its counts for 2023-2025 are provisional.
B2 vs B1
A vs B1
Why believe these series: ·
Show the data as a table
Flats authorised per 1,000 inhabitants a year, gap since 2017, by event study: zone B2, closed to Pinel in 2018, against B1; and zone A against B1, where no rule changed
Year
B2 vs B1
A vs B1
2013
1.20
-0.76
2014
1.15
-0.95
2015
0.95
-0.33
2016
0.30
-0.07
2017
0.00
0.00
2018
0.19
-0.35
2019
0.18
-0.71
2020
0.42
-0.83
2021
0.33
-1.12
2022
0.61
-1.19
Against the communes of zone B1, which kept Pinel, the flats authorised in the communes of zone B2 moved by per 1,000 inhabitants a year over 2018-2022 by the event study measured from 2017, from a mean of before. That estimator's own gaps before 2018 slide from in 2013 towards zero in 2017: B1 was catching up with B2 before the closure and stopped after, and an estimate measured from 2017 reads that halt as no change. Estimators that set every year before against every year after read it as a fall: by synthetic difference-in-differences and by the event study within bands of the 2013-2017 level. Where no rule changed, the estimators find gaps of the same size: zone A against B1 in 2018 gives by the event study and by synthetic difference-in-differences, and B2 against B1 at the fake date of 2015 gives and . The estimates for flats thus run from to , and the design cannot tell a large fall from none: the event study's interval excludes a fall larger than of B2's mean, but the estimator within level bands, for which no placebo was run, finds a larger one. Flats started moved by by the event study.
Houses, which the PTZ mostly financed, rose in B2 against B1 by per 1,000 inhabitants a year by the same event study, an interval that excludes zero. Taken at face value, B2 built more houses once their buyers' loan was cut. But B2's gap before 2018 already stood to above its level of 2017, so the rise says that 2017 was a low year for B2, the base that also flatters the estimate for flats; synthetic difference-in-differences, which sets all the years before against those after, gives . Either way, houses did not fall.
Prices tell more. The median price per m² of dwellings sold in B2 moved by against B1 over 2018-2021 by the same event study, an interval that excludes zero, with no gap in 2016, the one earlier year the price files cover. Zone A against B1, where no rule changed, gives , an interval that holds zero, so part of the fall in B2 may be B1's own rise. Lower prices where an investor's tax reduction was withdrawn are what one expects if part of the reduction had gone into prices rather than into building: the leakage the evaluations page looks for in every scheme.
The communes moved up the zoning in 2023-2025 authorised, after their move, flats per 1,000 inhabitants a year against communes not yet or never moved, from a mean of before: the interval excludes a rise larger than of that mean. A third of them entered the vacancy tax at the same time; compared within their status under that tax, . This holds for the year or two after the move, on Sitadel's provisional counts: permits answer with a lag and the 2025 move opened neither Pinel nor the PTZ, so a later response is not excluded.
Before 2018 Pinel applied in zone B2 only where the regional prefect approved it, and the approvals are not published by commune: the B2 group mixes communes that lost the scheme with communes that never had it, so every estimate is the effect of the closure on all B2 communes, diluted by the second. The 2018 contrast also carries the cut in the new-build PTZ: it measures the two together. The design measures what a commune's zone did, which opens or closes Pinel and the PTZ to buyers there, not the reductions and loans taken: no open data give Pinel purchases by commune, so the study measures building, not whether investment moved, and Sitadel counts dwellings authorised and started, not completed. The main window stops in 2022, before the reclassifications moved some of these B2 communes and the PTZ changed in 2024; taken to 2024, the estimate is . The zone of every commune at each revision is in zones.csv, the arrêtés of 2019 and 2022 as transcribed in arretes.csv, the rules of Pinel and the PTZ by period, each with its quote, in rules.csv, every estimate in results.csv and the sources in SOURCES.md. The code is analysis/zoning.ml, with the estimators of lib/did.ml.
Chapelle, Vignolles and Wolf (2018) found, when the earlier Robien and Borloo schemes were withdrawn from part of the territory:
We find that the removal of these tax credits decelerated house prices and lowered the vacancy rate in new dwellings without reducing the production of new housing units.Annals of Economics and Statistics 130 (2018)
Its own aims
Measured against what it was meant to do
Each aim as the scheme's own texts state it, quoted, then every outcome this site measured against it, with the same design as above: the event study, or synthetic difference-in-differences. Positive, negative and null results are listed alike. Where no open dataset covers an aim, the dataset it would need is named, with why it is not open. Before them, the article of law that founds the scheme, quoted from Légifrance or the parliamentary record with the dates its wording was in force; after them, the indicators the State set for the programme, as the State reports them, with their source: this site shows them but has not checked them.
In the law, or the nearest official text
Each aim as the founding text states it, with the article and the dates that wording was in force. Where an article states no aim, a line says so, and the aim is quoted from the nearest official text that states one: the bill's explanatory memorandum or impact study, a government instruction, or the programme's performance report.
The bill that extended Pinel and closed it to zone B2 states the aim; CGI art. 199 novovicies, which founds the scheme, is quoted through it and through the 2018 finance law (below).
Refocus the scheme, given its rising cost, on the areas where housing supply and demand are most out of balance
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, flats authorised: (95% interval -0.61 to +1.38).
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands and levels of 2013-2017, flats authorised: (95% interval -1.81 to -0.39).
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: synthetic difference-in-differences, flats authorised: (95% interval -0.93 to -0.16).
Placebo, zone A against B1 in 2018: event study within population bands, flats authorised: (95% interval -1.84 to +0.26).
Placebo, B2 against B1 at a fake date, 2015: event study within population bands, flats authorised: (95% interval -1.92 to +0.48).
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, price per m² of dwellings sold: (95% interval -3.6% to -1.1%).
Placebo, zone A against B1 in 2018: event study within population bands, price per m² of dwellings sold: (95% interval -3.1% to +0.6%).
Communes moved up the zoning in 2023-2025: event study against communes not yet or never moved, flats authorised: (95% interval -0.62 to +0.72).
In zones B2 and C, bring old dwellings back to the market rather than build new ones
Not covered: the return of old dwellings to the market in zone B2: vacant dwellings by commune (LOVAC) start in 2019, after the closure, so no open count exists before and after it
The State's own indicators
The indicators the State reports for the programme, with the latest value and the target as it prints them, the report and page they come from, and the open data that could measure each at this site's unit.
Indicator
Latest value
Target
This site's measure
Source
Open data that could measure it
P135-1-1, programme 135Pourcentage de logements locatifs sociaux agréés : Pourcentage de logements locatifs sociaux (PLAI, PLUS, PLS) agréés en zone tendue (A et B1)
76 %2025
75 %2025
not measured
RAP 2025 (PLRG 2025), data.economie.gouv.frRAP 2025 dataset, programme 135, indicator P135-1-1 (data/literature/objectives.csv); the target from the same dataset. The objective's only indicator counts social housing approved in zones A and B1, not the intermediate rental housing Pinel finances
No open data found: no file read by this site gives social housing approvals by commune; Sitadel counts every dwelling authorised, social or not.
Communes moved up the zoning in 2023-2025: event study against communes not yet or never moved, flats authorised
0.03EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2025: 1090 communes against 31541. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.254 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -0.62 to 0.72, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, price per m² of dwellings sold
−2.4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in the log of the median price per m² of dwellings sold (DVF, communes with five sales or more in the year) from 2017 to each year from 2018 to 2021, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over those years, in % (log points × 100): 2649 communes against 1382. The prices start in 2016, so one year before 2017 tests the trend: its gap is zero with p-value 0.905, so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -3.6% to -1.1%, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, flats authorised
0.35EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3776 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.143 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -0.61 to 1.38, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands and levels of 2013-2017, flats authorised
−1.00EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3773 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.200 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -1.81 to -0.39, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Cost of the income-tax reductions for buy-to-let investment in intermediate rental housing (tax expenditure 110261, CGI art. 199 novovicies), 384,000 households; the tax event ended in 2024.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, to 2024, flats authorised
0.66EstimatedCalculated by this site2024
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2024: 3776 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.143 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -0.17 to 1.73, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Communes moved up the zoning in 2023-2025: event study against communes not yet or never moved, within status under the vacancy tax, flats authorised
−0.05EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2025: 1086 communes against 31527. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.498 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -0.83 to 0.75, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Largest rise in the moved communes' flats the interval leaves open, share of their mean before
20.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
The rise beyond which the 95% interval excludes the effect, as a share of the 1090 treated communes' mean before treatment: 0.72 units per thousand inhabitants a year over a mean of 3.46.
Flats authorised in the communes moved up, mean before
3.46EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Mean of dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year in the 1090 communes moved up the zoning, over the years before treatment.
Placebo, zone A against B1 in 2018: event study within population bands, price per m² of dwellings sold
−1.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in the log of the median price per m² of dwellings sold (DVF, communes with five sales or more in the year) from 2017 to each year from 2018 to 2021, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over those years, in % (log points × 100): 711 communes against 1382. The prices start in 2016, so one year before 2017 tests the trend: its gap is zero with p-value 0.483, so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -3.1% to 0.6%, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: synthetic difference-in-differences, houses authorised
0.51EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in single or grouped houses per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) after treatment, in the treated communes minus comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before, against years before weighted so as to resemble the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3776 communes against 1513. The weights fit the years before treatment, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval 0.26 to 0.76, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, houses authorised, gap in 2013 against 2017
1.82EstimatedCalculated by this site2013
Definition
What it counts
Gap in dwellings authorised in single or grouped houses per thousand inhabitants of 2015 between the treated communes and their comparison communes in 2013, minus the same gap in 2017: one coefficient of the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, within population bands, 3776 communes against 1513.
Caveat
95% interval 0.30 to 3.90, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, houses authorised, gap in 2016 against 2017
1.07EstimatedCalculated by this site2016
Definition
What it counts
Gap in dwellings authorised in single or grouped houses per thousand inhabitants of 2015 between the treated communes and their comparison communes in 2016, minus the same gap in 2017: one coefficient of the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, within population bands, 3776 communes against 1513.
Caveat
95% interval -0.25 to 2.93, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, houses authorised
1.84EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in single or grouped houses per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3776 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.289 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval 0.60 to 3.90, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, flats started
0.36EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings started in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3776 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.214 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -0.34 to 1.18, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Largest fall in zone B2's flats the interval leaves open, share of their mean before
49.1%EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
The fall beyond which the 95% interval excludes the effect, as a share of the 3776 treated communes' mean before treatment: 0.61 units per thousand inhabitants a year over a mean of 1.25.
Placebo, B2 against B1 at a fake date, 2015: synthetic difference-in-differences, flats authorised
−1.09EstimatedCalculated by this site2017
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) after treatment, in the treated communes minus comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before, against years before weighted so as to resemble the years after, within the years 2013 to 2017: 3776 communes against 1513. The weights fit the years before treatment, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -1.57 to -0.61, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Placebo, B2 against B1 at a fake date, 2015: event study within population bands, flats authorised
−0.73EstimatedCalculated by this site2017
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2017: 3776 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.939 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -1.92 to 0.48, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Placebo, zone A against B1 in 2018: synthetic difference-in-differences, flats authorised
−0.58EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) after treatment, in the treated communes minus comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before, against years before weighted so as to resemble the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 722 communes against 1513. The weights fit the years before treatment, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -1.26 to 0.10, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Placebo, zone A against B1 in 2018: event study within population bands, flats authorised
−0.84EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) from the year before treatment to each year after, in the treated communes minus their comparison communes of the same cells, averaged over the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 722 communes against 1513. The coefficients two years or more before treatment are jointly zero with p-value 0.234 (bootstrap Wald test), so equal trends before treatment are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -1.84 to 0.26, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: synthetic difference-in-differences, flats authorised
−0.54EstimatedCalculated by this site2022
Definition
What it counts
Change in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year (Sitadel, by date of authorisation or start) after treatment, in the treated communes minus comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before, against years before weighted so as to resemble the years after, within the years 2013 to 2022: 3776 communes against 1513. The weights fit the years before treatment, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -0.93 to -0.16, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Pinel closed to zone B2 in 2018, B2 against B1: event study within population bands, flats authorised, gap in 2013 against 2017
1.20EstimatedCalculated by this site2013
Definition
What it counts
Gap in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 between the treated communes and their comparison communes in 2013, minus the same gap in 2017: one coefficient of the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, within population bands, 3776 communes against 1513.
Caveat
95% interval -0.08 to 2.42, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Mean of dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 a year in the 3776 communes of zone B2, over the years before treatment.
Flats authorised, zone B2 against B1, gap since 2017
2013 to 2022, yearly
What it counts
Gap in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 between the treated communes and their comparison communes in each year, minus the same gap in 2017: the coefficients of the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, within population bands.
Computed as
ATT(year) − ATT(2017)
From
b2-vs-b1 Flats authorised, zone B2 against B1, gap since 2017: this site, event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna analysis/zoning.ml inputs=data/zoning/sitadel.csv (SDES, Sitadel) + data/zoning/zones.csv (DGALN) + data/zrr/census.csv (Insee) · query the series · browse the table
Dataset version
updated computed by this site, read 2026-10-16
Caveat
Computed by this site. Each year's 95% interval is in results.csv, from 999 bootstrap draws of départements.
Flats authorised, zone A against B1, gap since 2017
2013 to 2022, yearly
What it counts
Gap in dwellings authorised in collective buildings per thousand inhabitants of 2015 between the treated communes and their comparison communes in each year, minus the same gap in 2017: the coefficients of the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna, within population bands.
Computed as
ATT(year) − ATT(2017)
From
a-vs-b1 Flats authorised, zone A against B1, gap since 2017: this site, event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna analysis/zoning.ml inputs=data/zoning/sitadel.csv (SDES, Sitadel) + data/zoning/zones.csv (DGALN) + data/zrr/census.csv (Insee) · query the series · browse the table
Dataset version
updated computed by this site, read 2026-10-16
Caveat
Computed by this site. Each year's 95% interval is in results.csv, from 999 bootstrap draws of départements.