Whether the State's programmes for towns and territories changed jobs and income in the communes they chose.
Action cœur de ville, Petites villes de demain and Territoires d'industrie fund projects in the places they name; no single budget line gives their cost. This page compares their communes with matched communes in none of them. By 2025 private jobs had changed by in the small towns of Petites villes de demain and by in Territoires d'industrie, neither distinguishable from zero. Action cœur de ville cannot be evaluated this way.
Estimated: a model, an imputation or a surveyUnmarked figures are published as observed.
Evidence
Three programmes since 2018 have named the places they help rather than the firms: Action cœur de ville (222 medium towns, 2018), Petites villes de demain (about 1,600 small towns, mostly 2021) and Territoires d'industrie (149 industrial territories, 2018). They fund engineering, studies and projects through several ministries and the Banque des Territoires, so no single budget line gives their cost. Each is evaluated like the ZRR: its communes against matched communes in none of them, with a fake start five years earlier.
Estimate95% range
Private-sector jobs
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
−3.9%, 95% range: −8.6% to +0.8%
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
−1.9%, 95% range: −4.9% to +1.1%
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
0.0%, 95% range: −1.7% to +1.7%
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
+0.2%, 95% range: −1.4% to +1.8%
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
+0.4%, 95% range: −2.1% to +2.9%
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
−0.8%, 95% range: −2.5% to +0.9%
Employer establishments
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
−4.0%, 95% range: −7.5% to −0.4%
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
−3.6%, 95% range: −6.4% to −0.8%
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
+0.4%, 95% range: −0.8% to +1.6%
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
−1.1%, 95% range: −2.3% to +0.1%
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
0.0%, 95% range: −1.5% to +1.6%
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
−1.0%, 95% range: −2.2% to +0.2%
Tax households
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
+0.1%, 95% range: −1.8% to +2.1%
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
−1.4%, 95% range: −2.7% to −0.2%
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
0.0%, 95% range: −0.5% to +0.5%
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
+0.1%, 95% range: −1.4% to +1.5%
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
−0.9%, 95% range: −1.4% to −0.4%
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
−0.2%, 95% range: −0.6% to +0.3%
Income per household
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
−0.8%, 95% range: −2.9% to +1.2%
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
−0.5%, 95% range: −1.6% to +0.7%
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
−0.3%, 95% range: −0.8% to +0.1%
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
−0.4%, 95% range: −1.0% to +0.2%
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
0.0%, 95% range: −0.5% to +0.6%
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
+0.5%, 95% range: −0.1% to +1.1%
−10%−8%−5%−2%0%+2%+5%
Effect, %
Show the data as a table
Every design and outcome, final year
Outcome
Design
Year
Estimate
95% range
Private-sector jobs
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
2025
−3.9%
−8.6% to +0.8%
Private-sector jobs
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−1.9%
−4.9% to +1.1%
Private-sector jobs
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
2025
0.0%
−1.7% to +1.7%
Private-sector jobs
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
2020
+0.2%
−1.4% to +1.8%
Private-sector jobs
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
2025
+0.4%
−2.1% to +2.9%
Private-sector jobs
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−0.8%
−2.5% to +0.9%
Employer establishments
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
2025
−4.0%
−7.5% to −0.4%
Employer establishments
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−3.6%
−6.4% to −0.8%
Employer establishments
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
2025
+0.4%
−0.8% to +1.6%
Employer establishments
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
2020
−1.1%
−2.3% to +0.1%
Employer establishments
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
2025
0.0%
−1.5% to +1.6%
Employer establishments
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−1.0%
−2.2% to +0.2%
Tax households
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
2024
+0.1%
−1.8% to +2.1%
Tax households
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−1.4%
−2.7% to −0.2%
Tax households
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
2024
0.0%
−0.5% to +0.5%
Tax households
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
2020
+0.1%
−1.4% to +1.5%
Tax households
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
2024
−0.9%
−1.4% to −0.4%
Tax households
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−0.2%
−0.6% to +0.3%
Income per household
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018
2024
−0.8%
−2.9% to +1.2%
Income per household
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
−0.5%
−1.6% to +0.7%
Income per household
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021
2024
−0.3%
−0.8% to +0.1%
Income per household
Petites villes de demain: placebo, fake start in 2015
2020
−0.4%
−1.0% to +0.2%
Income per household
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes
2024
0.0%
−0.5% to +0.6%
Income per household
Territoires d'industrie: placebo, fake start in 2012
2017
+0.5%
−0.1% to +1.1%
By 2025, private jobs in the small towns of Petites villes de demain had moved by relative to their matches, and in the communes of Territoires d'industrie by . The placebos pass, and neither programme's change in jobs, employers or income can be distinguished from zero, except a census fall in industrial jobs in Territoires d'industrie (), which no placebo can check. The 95% intervals exclude a change in private jobs of more than about 2% in the small towns and 3% in the industrial territories, whose programme is the older. Action cœur de ville cannot be evaluated this way: its medium towns have too few comparable towns in their regions, fewer than 10 of 100 matching draws pass the balance check, and its placebo shows the towns already losing employers before 2018 (), consistent with the programme's selection criteria.
By event study and synthetic difference-in-differences. The matching pairs each commune with one comparison. Three estimators built for programmes that start at different dates compare the whole group year by year instead: the event study of Callaway and Sant'Anna against communes never treated, the same against communes not yet treated, and synthetic difference-in-differences, which reweights the comparison communes and years. Each runs against two comparison groups: far communes, in none of the three programmes and more than 10 km from one in it, and eligible towns, which met the programme's published criteria but were not chosen. The overall effect on private jobs to 2025, by the three estimators in that order:
Action cœur de ville: against far communes , and ; against eligible towns , and .
Petites villes de demain: against far communes , and ; against eligible towns , and .
Territoires d'industrie: against far communes , and ; against eligible towns , and .
Territoires d'industrie shows no effect by any of them, and its communes moved with their comparisons before 2018: the matched finding holds. For the two town programmes the averages are negative but cannot be read as effects. Before the start the chosen towns were already losing private jobs against the eligible ones, by about 0.8% a year, and the test of equal trends before the start rejects them against both groups; after the start the gap goes on opening at about the same pace. Synthetic difference-in-differences, which fits the years before the start, finds nothing for Action cœur de ville against eligible towns, and for Petites villes de demain a drop that appears at once in the year the conventions were signed, as a selection on that year's shock would and engineering support would not. The matching, which pairs towns on their jobs in three earlier years, finds no effect for Petites villes de demain and cannot balance Action cœur de ville. None of the three programmes measurably raised private jobs.
The criteria and how each comparison group is drawn are in SOURCES.md; the estimates for every year, cohort and outcome are in did.csv, the communes that met each programme's criteria in eligible.csv. The code is analysis/places_did.ml, with the estimators of lib/did.ml.
The design measures what a commune's membership of a programme did, not the money or engineering it received, which no budget line or open file gives by commune; jobs are Urssaf's salaried employees of private employers, which leave out the self-employed, farm workers covered by the MSA and public employees. Each matching draw pairs of the small towns of Petites villes de demain, and of 100 draws pass the balance check; of the communes of Territoires d'industrie, with draws balanced; and of the towns of Action cœur de ville, with draws balanced. Territoires d'industrie communes for 2018 are placed by whether their centre falls inside the official 2022 perimeters, since no commune list was published. Intervals are 95% confidence intervals with standard errors clustered by département. The code is analysis/places.ml and the results are in results.csv.
Its own aims
Measured against what it was meant to do
Each aim as the scheme's own texts state it, quoted, then every outcome this site measured against it, with the same design as above: the matched comparison, or the synthetic control. Positive, negative and null results are listed alike. Where no open dataset covers an aim, the dataset it would need is named, with why it is not open. Before them, the article of law that founds the scheme, quoted from Légifrance or the parliamentary record with the dates its wording was in force; after them, the indicators the State set for the programme, as the State reports them, with their source: this site shows them but has not checked them.
In the law, or the nearest official text
Each aim as the founding text states it, with the article and the dates that wording was in force. Where an article states no aim, a line says so, and the aim is quoted from the nearest official text that states one: the bill's explanatory memorandum or impact study, a government instruction, or the programme's performance report.
The ANCT carries out the State's policy of territorial cohesion through national territorialised programmes
No law creates ACV, PVD or TI; this is the statutory basis of the agency that runs them.
Help local authorities with projects for services, housing and the commercial revitalisation of town and village centres
« de conseiller et de soutenir les collectivités territoriales et leurs groupements mentionnés à l'article L. 5111-1 du présent code dans la conception, la définition et la mise en œuvre de leurs projets, notamment en faveur de l'accès aux services publics, de l'accès aux soins dans le respect des articles L. 1431-1 et L. 1431-2 du code de la santé publique, du logement, dont la rénovation de l'habitat dégradé et la transformation des bâtiments à destination autre que d'habitation en habitations, des mobilités, de la mobilisation pour les quartiers prioritaires de la politique de la ville et les quartiers urbains en difficulté, de la revitalisation, notamment commerciale et artisanale, des centres-villes et centres-bourgs »Code général des collectivités territoriales, art. L1231-2, I, in force since 2025-06-18 (LEGIARTI000051749429)
Statutory mission of the ANCT, not an aim of a programme.
Modernise housing, shops and the urban fabric to make the territory more attractive, and fight vacant dwellings and shops and substandard housing
The only statutory text behind ACV and PVD: each ACV convention is worth an ORT and each PVD convention-cadre is one; the programmes themselves have no law.
No law creates the programme; this government instruction is the most official text that defines it. The first instruction, of 10 January 2018 (NOR TERR1800859C, Légifrance circulaire n° 42909), is not quoted here.
Revitalise town centres and make them attractive again
Same instruction; the parenthesis is its only explicit statement of the programme's objectives.
Five compulsory axes: attractive housing, balanced economic and commercial development, accessibility and mobility, urban form and heritage, access to public services
No law creates PVD, and no 2020 founding instruction is on Légifrance; this 2023 instruction is the most official text found that states its objective. Its PDF is a scan: the quote was read from the OCR layer, which has no error in this passage.
Develop industry in the territories by linking local officials and manufacturers, on skills, attractiveness of industrial jobs, innovation and land
No law, decree or circulaire on Légifrance founds the programme (launched by the Prime Minister at the Conseil national de l'industrie on 22 November 2018); the 2018 launch pages on info.gouv.fr and economie.gouv.fr refused access (403), so this ministerial press kit is the most official text read.
In the programme's texts
Action cœur de ville's towns find matches that pass the balance check in only 9 of 100 draws, and their bassins de vie in 4, so its rows below describe these towns but cannot be read as the programme's effects.
From 2015 to 2020, before Petites villes de demain, the bassins de vie of its towns moved against their matched bassins by in shops (95% interval -3.4 to +0.2) and by in services (95% interval -5.3 to -2.6), so the bassin rows below cannot tell the programme from that earlier drift.
Action cœur de ville: better living conditions in medium towns
Industrial jobs (census): (95% interval -11.0 to -1.0).
Jobs at the place of work (census): (95% interval -1.1 to +1.1).
Private-sector jobs: (95% interval -2.1 to +2.9).
Employer establishments: (95% interval -1.5 to +1.6).
Land taken for economic activity, m² per household: (95% interval -7.2 to +0.2).
The State's own indicators
The indicators the State reports for the programme, with the latest value and the target as it prints them, the report and page they come from, and the open data that could measure each at this site's unit.
Indicator
Latest value
Target
This site's measure
Source
Open data that could measure it
P112-2-1, programme 112Soutenir efficacement les collectivités en demande d’ingénierie pour accélérer leurs projets spécifiques : Nombre de projets accompagnés « en propre » et sur mesure par des services ou des programmes de l’ANCT
5162025
8002025
not measured
RAP 2025 (PLRG 2025), data.economie.gouv.frRAP 2025 dataset, programme 112, indicator P112-2-1, sous-indicateur « Nombre de projets accompagnés « en propre » et sur mesure par des services ou des programmes de l’ANCT »; cible 2026 (PAP 2026, carried in the RAP 2025 dataset): 625
No open data measures it: the ANCT does not publish the projects it accompanies by commune or by programme.
P112-2-1, programme 112Soutenir efficacement les collectivités en demande d’ingénierie pour accélérer leurs projets spécifiques : Nombre de projets impliquant un prestataire issu du contrat-cadre d’ingénierie
4342025
5002025
not measured
RAP 2025 (PLRG 2025), data.economie.gouv.frRAP 2025 dataset, programme 112, indicator P112-2-1, sous-indicateur « Nombre de projets impliquant un prestataire issu du contrat-cadre d’ingénierie »; cible 2026 (PAP 2026, carried in the RAP 2025 dataset): 525
No open data measures it: the ANCT does not publish the projects it accompanies by commune or by programme.
MDB-1-1, Mission ÉconomieNombre net de nouveaux sites industriels et d'extensions significatives de sites industriels : Nombre net de nouveaux sites industriels et d'extensions significatives de sites industriels
192025
none set
not measured
RAP 2025 (PLRG 2025), data.economie.gouv.fr, indicateur de missionRAP 2025 dataset, mission record MDB-1-1, sous-indicateur « Nombre net de nouveaux sites industriels et d'extensions significatives de sites industriels »; objectif MDB-1 « Faciliter le développement des sites industriels »; exec 2023: 189, exec 2024: 88; no target. The closest indicator to the aim of Territoires d'industrie; no indicator names the programme; cible 2026 (PAP 2026, carried in the RAP 2025 dataset): none set
No open data found: no open file lists the openings, closures and extensions behind the count by commune, so it cannot be split between Territoires d'industrie and other communes.
The census outcomes compare 2021 with 2015, so they serve only designs that start in 2015-2017, and no placebo can be run on them; land taken comes from CEREMA's land-registry series, 2011-2024. The aims and their sources are in aims.csv, the texts of law in law.csv, the State's indicators in indicators.csv, and this site's measures of them in measured.csv and, year by year, measured_series.csv.
Change in private-sector jobs in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.1 to 2.9 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -5.2 to 6.0, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, private-sector jobs, 2025
0.010%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private-sector jobs in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -1.7 to 1.7 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -4.4 to 4.7, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 15620 communes against 7399. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -1.4 to 1.6, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 19739 communes against 11543. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.612 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -1.5 to 0.8, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 19739 communes against 7399. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.524 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -1.5 to 1.2, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
programme=ti, estimator=cs-never, controls=eligible, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−0.1%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Territoires d'industrie, private jobs: synthetic DiD, far communes
−1.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 15620 communes against 5305. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -3.1 to 0.4, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
programme=ti, estimator=sdid, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−1.3%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Territoires d'industrie, private jobs: event study, not-yet-treated comparison, far communes
−0.8%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 19764 communes against 9449. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.173 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -2.1 to 0.5, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
programme=ti, estimator=cs-not-yet, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−0.8%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Territoires d'industrie, private jobs: event study, never-treated comparison, far communes
−0.7%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 19764 communes against 5305. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.208 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are not rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -2.5 to 1.3, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
programme=ti, estimator=cs-never, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−0.7%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Petites villes de demain, private jobs: synthetic DiD, eligible towns
−1.5%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 1530 communes against 1619. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -2.4 to -0.5, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 1602 communes against 1686. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -3.0 to -1.2, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 1602 communes against 1619. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -3.0 to -1.2, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=pvd, estimator=cs-never, controls=eligible, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−2.0%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Petites villes de demain, private jobs: synthetic DiD, far communes
−3.2%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 1530 communes against 5024. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -4.6 to -1.9, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=pvd, estimator=sdid, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−3.2%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Petites villes de demain, private jobs: event study, not-yet-treated comparison, far communes
−3.6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 1602 communes against 5091. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -5.2 to -2.3, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=pvd, estimator=cs-not-yet, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−3.6%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Petites villes de demain, private jobs: event study, never-treated comparison, far communes
−3.6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 1602 communes against 5024. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -5.2 to -2.3, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=pvd, estimator=cs-never, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−3.6%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Action cœur de ville, private jobs: synthetic DiD, eligible towns
−0.7%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 218 communes against 51. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -2.6 to 1.2, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 223 communes against 59. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -5.9 to -0.8, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 200 communes against 51. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -3.9 to -0.2, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=acv, estimator=cs-never, controls=eligible, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−1.8%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Action cœur de ville, private jobs: synthetic DiD, far communes
−3.4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) after the start, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes weighted so as to move with them before the start, against years before the start weighted so as to resemble the years after, in % (log points × 100): 218 communes against 12140. The weights fit the years before the start, so they carry no pre-trend test.
Caveat
95% interval -4.8 to -2.0, from a standard error by leaving one département out at a time: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=acv, estimator=sdid, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−3.4%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Action cœur de ville, private jobs: event study, not-yet-treated comparison, far communes
−4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 226 communes against 12148. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -5.1 to -2.7, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=acv, estimator=cs-not-yet, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−4.0%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Action cœur de ville, private jobs: event study, never-treated comparison, far communes
−4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private jobs (log of one plus jobs) from the year before the start to each year after it, to 2025, in the programme's communes minus their comparison communes of the same region, averaged over the years, in % (log points × 100): 226 communes against 12140. The coefficients of the years before the start are jointly zero with p-value 0.001 (Wald test with the bootstrap covariance), so equal trends before the start are rejected.
Caveat
95% interval -5.1 to -2.7, the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of 999 bootstrap draws of départements: distinguishable from zero at 95%.
programme=acv, estimator=cs-never, controls=far, outcome=jobs, the row without event_time
Published
2026
As published
−4.0%
Read
2026-10-15
Why believe this?
Action cœur de ville: placebo, fake start in 2012, employer establishments, 2017
−3.6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2017
Definition
What it counts
Change in employer establishments in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -6.4 to -0.8 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -4.2 to -2.8, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes, industrial jobs (census), 2021
−6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in industrial jobs (census) from the 2015 to the 2021 census in the treated communes, minus the change in their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). The 2021 census pools the surveys of 2019-2023.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -11.0 to -1.0 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -15.4 to 4.4, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, population (census), 2021
−0.1%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in population (census) from the 2015 to the 2021 census in the treated communes, minus the change in their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). The 2021 census pools the surveys of 2019-2023.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -1.8 to 1.6 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -1.9 to 1.2, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, net migration, per 1,000 inhabitants, 2021
−1.1EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Population change from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2021 less births and deaths, per 1,000 inhabitants of 2015, in the treated communes minus their matched controls (Insee census and civil registers).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -18.6 to 16.4 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -20.2 to 12.7, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, tax households, 2024
0.1%EstimatedCalculated by this site2024
Definition
What it counts
Change in tax households in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -1.8 to 2.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -0.8 to 1.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, income per household, 2024
−0.8%EstimatedCalculated by this site2024
Definition
What it counts
Change in income per household in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.9 to 1.2 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -1.7 to -0.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, employer establishments, 2025
−4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in employer establishments in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -7.5 to -0.4 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -6.0 to -1.0, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, private-sector jobs, 2025
−3.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in private-sector jobs in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -8.6 to 0.8 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -6.5 to -1.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, jobs at the place of work (census), 2021
0.6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in jobs at the place of work (census) from the 2015 to the 2021 census in the treated communes, minus the change in their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). The 2021 census pools the surveys of 2019-2023.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.4 to 3.6 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -0.8 to 2.4, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: bassins de vie of the 2018 towns, shops in the bassin de vie, 2025
−10%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of shops (Insee BPE, commerce types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100). Insee publishes these counts by bassin, not by commune.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -19.4 to -0.5 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -11.8 to -6.9, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, land taken for economic activity, m² per household, 2025
4.6EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Land taken for economic activity since the start of the design in the treated communes, minus their matched controls, in square metres per tax household of 2016 (CEREMA, from the land registry).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -0.7 to 9.9 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws 2.1 to 6.7, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, vacant private dwellings, 2025
−5.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of private dwellings vacant on 1 January (LOVAC: DGFiP, Cerema) since the start of the design, or since 2019, when the counts begin, if it started earlier, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). Counts under 11 are secret and leave a commune out.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -15.3 to 3.5 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -13.1 to 1.9, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, private dwellings vacant for over two years, 2025
−3.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of private dwellings vacant for more than two years on 1 January (LOVAC) since the start of the design, or since 2019 if it started earlier, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). Counts under 11 are secret and leave a commune out.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -22.7 to 16.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -16.4 to 9.8, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, median price per m² of dwellings sold, 2021
−3.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in the median price per square metre of the houses and flats sold alone (DGFiP, Demandes de valeurs foncières, 2016-2021) since the start of the design, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). A year with fewer than five sales leaves the commune out of it.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -7.8 to 0.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -5.2 to -2.5, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: towns named in 2018, land taken for housing, m² per household, 2025
6.9EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Land taken for housing since the start of the design in the treated communes, minus their matched controls, in square metres per tax household of 2016 (CEREMA, from the land registry).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -0.5 to 14.2 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws 3.6 to 10.6, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Action cœur de ville: bassins de vie of the 2018 towns, services in the bassin de vie, 2025
−6.8%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of services to individuals and of health and social facilities (Insee BPE, types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -11.7 to -1.8 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -7.1 to -6.5, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, tax households, 2024
0.020%EstimatedCalculated by this site2024
Definition
What it counts
Change in tax households in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -0.5 to 0.5 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -1.0 to 0.7, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, income per household, 2024
−0.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2024
Definition
What it counts
Change in income per household in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -0.8 to 0.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -1.4 to 0.9, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, employer establishments, 2025
0.4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in employer establishments in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -0.8 to 1.6 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -2.6 to 3.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: bassins de vie of the towns, shops in the bassin de vie, 2025
−1.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of shops (Insee BPE, commerce types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100). Insee publishes these counts by bassin, not by commune.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -3.0 to 0.5 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -2.8 to 0.6, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: bassins de vie of the towns, services in the bassin de vie, 2025
−2.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of services to individuals and of health and social facilities (Insee BPE, types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -4.2 to -1.5 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -3.7 to -1.8, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, vacant private dwellings, 2025
0.4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of private dwellings vacant on 1 January (LOVAC: DGFiP, Cerema) since the start of the design, or since 2019, when the counts begin, if it started earlier, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). Counts under 11 are secret and leave a commune out.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.0 to 2.9 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -4.7 to 8.8, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, private dwellings vacant for over two years, 2025
1.1%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of private dwellings vacant for more than two years on 1 January (LOVAC) since the start of the design, or since 2019 if it started earlier, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). Counts under 11 are secret and leave a commune out.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.2 to 4.5 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -5.6 to 10.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, median price per m² of dwellings sold, 2021
−0.9%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in the median price per square metre of the houses and flats sold alone (DGFiP, Demandes de valeurs foncières, 2016-2021) since the start of the design, in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). A year with fewer than five sales leaves the commune out of it.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.8 to 1.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -5.6 to 3.4, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, median price per m² of dwellings sold, from 2021, 2025
−0.3%EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Change in the median price per square metre of houses and flats from 2021 to 2025 (Etalab's statistics of the Demandes de valeurs foncières, sales-weighted monthly medians), in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). Measured from the year most towns signed, not from before it.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.3 to 1.6 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -3.8 to 4.0, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, land taken for housing, m² per household, 2025
−0.3EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Land taken for housing since the start of the design in the treated communes, minus their matched controls, in square metres per tax household of 2016 (CEREMA, from the land registry).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -3.3 to 2.7 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -9.3 to 7.0, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: towns signed in 2021, land taken for economic activity, m² per household, 2025
0.9EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Land taken for economic activity since the start of the design in the treated communes, minus their matched controls, in square metres per tax household of 2016 (CEREMA, from the land registry).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -2.5 to 4.3 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -6.2 to 11.2, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes, jobs at the place of work (census), 2021
−0.030%EstimatedCalculated by this site2021
Definition
What it counts
Change in jobs at the place of work (census) from the 2015 to the 2021 census in the treated communes, minus the change in their matched controls, in % (log points × 100). The 2021 census pools the surveys of 2019-2023.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -1.1 to 1.1 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -1.9 to 2.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Change in employer establishments in the treated communes minus their matched controls, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -1.5 to 1.6 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -3.4 to 3.5, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Territoires d'industrie: 2018 communes, land taken for economic activity, m² per household, 2025
−3.5EstimatedCalculated by this site2025
Definition
What it counts
Land taken for economic activity since the start of the design in the treated communes, minus their matched controls, in square metres per tax household of 2016 (CEREMA, from the land registry).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -7.2 to 0.2 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -10.9 to 2.5, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: bassins de vie, fake start in 2015, services in the bassin de vie, 2020
−4%EstimatedCalculated by this site2020
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of services to individuals and of health and social facilities (Insee BPE, types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100).
Caveat
95% confidence interval -5.3 to -2.6 (standard errors clustered by département): distinguishable from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -4.9 to -3.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.
Petites villes de demain: bassins de vie, fake start in 2015, shops in the bassin de vie, 2020
−1.6%EstimatedCalculated by this site2020
Definition
What it counts
Change in the number of shops (Insee BPE, commerce types counted alike in 2015, 2020 and 2025) in the bassins de vie whose pôle is a programme town, minus matched bassins whose pôle is in no programme, in % (log points × 100). Insee publishes these counts by bassin, not by commune.
Caveat
95% confidence interval -3.4 to 0.2 (standard errors clustered by département): cannot be distinguished from zero at 95%. Range across matching draws -3.3 to 0.1, which measures how much the estimate depends on the draw, not sampling uncertainty.