# Sources for forecast/forecasts.csv

Each row of `forecasts.csv` is one figure of the draft budgets for 2027 or
of the Haut Conseil des finances publiques' opinion on them, with the page
or paragraph it is read from and the sentence or table row quoted. Every
figure for 2026 and 2027 is a forecast or a plan, so its claim is
Hypothetical; the Government's figures for 2025 are its outturn on its own
basis. `Budget_data.Forecast.load` reads the file and makes one claim per
row (`forecast-<key>` and `budget-<key>`).

The `source` column names the document:

| `source` | Document |
|---|---|
| `plf2027` | the Government's figures in the draft budget for 2027, as reproduced by the Haut Conseil |
| `hcfp` | the Haut Conseil's own measure |
| `council` | the recommendations of the Council of the European Union of January 2025, as the Haut Conseil reports them |
| `bdf` | the Banque de France's forecast of 15 September 2026, as reported by the Haut Conseil |
| `insee` | Insee's Note de conjoncture of 10 September 2026, as reported by the Haut Conseil |
| `plf2027_bill` | the projet de loi de finances pour 2027 as tabled |
| `plfss2027_bill` | the projet de loi de financement de la sécurité sociale pour 2027 as tabled |

The forecasts (`forecast-<key>`) were read on 2026-10-15; the measures, the
effort, the State's spending norm and the Ondam (`budget-<key>`) on
2026-10-16; the European fiscal rules and the structural balance
(`frame-<key>`) on 2026-10-17.

## 1. The Haut Conseil's opinion

- Haut Conseil des finances publiques, *Avis n° HCFP-2026-5 relatif aux
  projets de lois de finances et de financement de la sécurité sociale pour
  l'année 2027*, 25 September 2026.
- URL: `https://www.hcfp.fr/sites/default/files/2026-10/Avis%20HCFP%202026-5%20-%20PLF-PLFSS%202027.pdf`
  (SHA-256
  `cf02528c4a5defd0430175fd6a1f98697bce43e1127888b68639f1694d5ff378`),
  `raw/hcfp_avis_2026-5_plf2027.pdf`.
- The draft budget's own files on budget.gouv.fr do not answer scripted
  requests; the opinion reproduces, in its annexes, the draft budget's
  article liminaire (annex 3, p. 48), its table of the public balance in
  € billion (annex 3, p. 49) and its economic scenario (annex 1, p. 45).
- Rows `plf2027`: the deficit, debt, levies and spending as shares of GDP,
  and spending in € billion, for 2025 to 2027, from the article liminaire
  (annex 3, p. 48); the deficit and GDP of 2026 in € billion (annex 3,
  p. 49); GDP growth in
  volume and in value, 2026 and 2027 (annex 1, p. 45); compulsory levies in
  € billion (§ 58, p. 19); interest on the debt, 2026 and 2027 (§ 115,
  p. 38); the measures for 2027 in revenue and in spending (§ 102, p. 31).
- Rows `hcfp`: the structural effort of 2027, as a share of GDP, in
  € billion, and its parts in revenue and in spending (§ 98, p. 30).
- Rows `bdf` and `insee`: growth forecasts for 2026 (table 4, p. 12).
- The European fiscal rules (`frame-<key>`):
  - `edp_deficit_2029` (`council`, § 108, p. 34): the recommendations of
    January 2025, one under the excessive deficit procedure opened in
    July 2024, require the deficit below 3 points of GDP by 2029;
  - `npe_ceiling_2025` to `_2027` and `npe_ceiling_cum_2027` (`council`,
    table 16, p. 35), `npe_ceiling_2028` and `_2029` (§ 128, p. 43): the
    ceilings on net expenditure growth; net expenditure is defined in
    footnote 23, p. 34;
  - `npe_2025` to `_2027` and `npe_cum_2027` (`plf2027`, table 16,
    p. 35): the draft budget's net expenditure growth;
  - `npe_gap_2026` (`hcfp`, § 109, p. 34): the excess over the ceiling;
  - `sb_2025` to `_2027` (`plf2027`, annex 3, article liminaire, p. 48)
    and `sb_change_2026`, `_2027` (table 12, p. 29): the structural
    balance and its change;
  - `sb_lpfp_2026`, `_2027` and `sb_target_2026`, `_2027` (`hcfp`, § 105
    and table 14, p. 33): the structural balance on the programming act's
    potential GDP, and the act's targets. The quote keeps the opinion's
    spelling, "attendrait".

The Government counts spending without tax credits and revenue as
compulsory levies only, so these rows are not on the basis of Eurostat's
figures for past years.

## 2. The draft budgets as tabled

- Projet de loi de finances pour 2027, n° 3210, tabled at the Assemblée
  nationale on 1 October 2026:
  `https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/textes/l17b3210_projet-loi.pdf`
  (SHA-256
  `132274b83bed4861a9e1a147d0d16abda2d729cdad2373ef804e26747c43d881`).
  Rows `measures_2027` and `measures_total_2027` (exposé général des
  motifs, I.2, p. 12), `pde_2027` and `pde_2026` (II.1 and its table,
  p. 13).
- Projet de loi de financement de la sécurité sociale pour 2027, n° 3211,
  tabled the same day:
  `https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/textes/l17b3211_projet-loi.pdf`
  (SHA-256
  `47f5fc0d1581c90634449516281070495b92cfe062c20c2a366919622906eab6`).
  Rows `ondam_2027` and `ondam_growth_2027` (article 43 and its exposé des
  motifs, p. 120), `ondam_2026` (article 2, p. 4).

The Assemblée nationale deleted the article liminaire of the bill n° 3210
in its first sitting of 14 October 2026; the record is copied in
`../literature/law/an-2026-10-14-article-liminaire.txt`. The rows quote the
article as the Government tabled it.

## Which pages read which rows

- The home page (`index.html`): the 2026 and 2027 tiles and their note read
  every `plf2027` row of annex 3 and annex 1 (`deficit`, `deficit_pct`,
  `debt_pct`, `levies`, `levies_pct`, `spending`, `spending_pct`, `gdp`,
  `growth`, `growth_nominal`, their `_2027` rows and the `_2025` rows),
  `interest`, `interest_2027`, `growth_bdf` and `growth_insee`; the public
  debt at the end of 2026 in € billion is computed from `debt_pct` and
  `gdp` (`forecast-debt`). Its summary of the year reads `debt_pct` and
  `interest`.
- The money page (`money.html`), "The draft budgets for 2027": the
  `measures_*`, `effort_*`, `pde_*` and `ondam_*` rows; "The European
  fiscal rules": every `frame-<key>` row; "Interest, and the parts of
  general government": `interest` and `interest_2027`.